Retail media is one of the fastest-evolving segments in digital advertising. In 2025, brands and retailers are increasing their investments in retail media platforms at a pace not seen in other channels. This shift is driven by changes in consumer behavior, data privacy regulations, and the growth of ecommerce.

Global Retail Media Spend Forecast

Multiple research firms project significant growth in retail media ad spending for 2025. The numbers show both the size of the market and how fast it's expanding.

Global Market Size Scenarios

Analysts provide different estimates for global retail media ad spending in 2025:

• WARC projection: Total global ad spending will reach $1.17 trillion in 2025, with retail media taking a growing share

• eMarketer estimate: Global retail media ad spend will surpass $140 billion in 2025 with high double-digit growth

• Nielsen report: U.S. retail media spend alone expected to reach $60 billion in 2025, up 20% year-over-year

• Industry forecasts: Global retail media could account for 20-25% of all digital ad spend by end of 2025

These numbers show that retail media is expanding much faster than most other forms of digital advertising.

U.S. and China Volumes

The United States and China represent the two largest retail media markets globally. In the U.S., spending on retail media networks is expected to reach approximately $60 billion in 2025. This reflects about 20% growth year-over-year, which outpaces overall U.S. digital ad market growth.

China also represents a significant portion of global retail media spend, with estimates for 2025 ranging from $65 billion to $75 billion. The Chinese market structure differs from the U.S., with major ecommerce platforms integrating retail media as part of broader digital ecosystems.

Share of Total Digital Ad Spend

Retail media is capturing a larger share of total digital advertising budgets each year. In 2025, retail media is expected to represent over 20% of all global digital ad spending, up from less than 15% just two years prior.

Retail media now ranks as one of the top three digital advertising channels worldwide, rivaling established leaders like search and social media.

Key Drivers Powering Retail Media Growth

Retail media refers to advertising that appears on websites, apps, and digital spaces owned by retailers. This includes ads on store websites, mobile apps, or digital screens in physical stores. Retailers use these channels to let brands advertise directly to shoppers as they browse or make purchases.

First-Party Data Advantage

Retailers collect information about shoppers through their own websites, apps, and loyalty programs. This data is called "first-party data" and shows what products customers view, buy, and how often they shop. Because retailers see customer activity from sign-in to checkout, they can help brands show ads to the right people at the right time.

Closed-Loop Attribution

Retail media networks often allow advertisers to track whether someone who saw an ad actually bought the product, either online or in-store. This system is called "closed-loop attribution." Brands can see a direct link between their advertising and sales results, making campaign performance easier to measure than traditional advertising methods.

Phasing Out Third-Party Cookies

Many browsers are removing support for third-party cookies, which are small files that track users across different websites. As these cookies disappear, it becomes harder for advertisers to follow users around the web. Retailers' first-party data becomes more valuable because it doesn't rely on cookies from other companies.

Where Budgets Are Coming From

Search and Social Reallocation

Marketers are moving portions of their advertising budgets away from search engines like Google and social media platforms like Meta. These dollars are being redirected to retail media networks because they offer direct access to shoppers who are already close to making a purchase.

Trade Marketing Shift

Trade marketing describes the money brands spend to promote their products in physical retail stores, such as in-store displays or co-op advertising. Some of these funds are being reassigned from traditional trade marketing activities to retail media channels. Instead of only using shelf displays or printed promotions, brands are using digital placements inside retailers' online stores or apps.

Incremental New Dollars

Retail media is also attracting new advertising money that isn't just shifted from other channels. Some brands are increasing their overall marketing budgets to include retail media for the first time, meaning the total amount spent on advertising is rising.

Leading Retail Media Platforms by Share

Amazon Walmart and Target

Amazon, Walmart, and Target are the largest retail media networks by ad market share in 2025. Amazon holds the highest share globally, accounting for more than half of total retail media ad spend. Its platform includes sponsored products, display ads, video, and off-site programmatic buying through its demand-side platform.

Walmart holds the second-largest position in the United States through Walmart Connect, which offers closed-loop measurement and access to in-store, online, and off-site audiences. Target's Roundel network integrates retail data with media placements, offering both on-site and off-site ad formats.

Grocery and Pharmacy Networks

Grocery chains and pharmacy retailers have expanded their media offerings:

• Kroger Precision Marketing: Allows brands to advertise to customers shopping for groceries online or in-store

• Albertsons Media Collective: Provides ad placements across websites, apps, and digital screens

• Instacart Ads: Focuses on consumer packaged goods during online grocery shopping

• Walgreens and CVS: Offer retail media networks with placements across websites, apps, and in-store digital screens

Emerging Marketplace Entrants

Newer retail media platforms are entering the market both domestically and internationally. Retailers like Best Buy, Ulta Beauty, and Home Depot have launched or expanded their media networks in 2025. International platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com in China, plus Mercado Libre in Latin America, have developed retail media capabilities for their local markets.

On-Site Off-Site and In-Store Inventory Mix

Sponsored Product and Display

On-site inventory refers to ads that appear directly within a retailer's own digital environment. Sponsored product ads show products in search results or category pages and look similar to regular product listings but are marked as sponsored. Display ads take the form of banners or visual placements that can appear on homepages, product detail pages, or during checkout.

Open-Web and CTV Extensions

Off-site inventory includes ads that use retailer data but appear outside the retailer's website or app. Retailers use information about their shoppers to target ads on other websites, social media platforms, or streaming services. Connected TV (CTV) extensions are off-site ads that play on internet-connected televisions, using retailer data to show commercials to people likely interested in specific products.

Digital In-Store Screens

Digital in-store screens are physical monitors located inside retail stores that show ads, promotions, or branded content to customers as they shop. These screens can be placed at entrances, near shelves, or at checkout areas. Measuring the impact of these ads is more complex than online ads because tracking which customers saw an ad and then made a purchase is less direct in physical environments.

Measurement and ROI Benchmarks Marketers Demand

Attribution Windows and Sales Lift

Retail media campaigns are measured by tracking what happens after someone sees an ad. The period during which actions are counted is called the attribution window. Common attribution windows are seven days, fourteen days, or thirty days after a shopper clicks or views an ad.

Sales lift measures the difference in product sales that can be linked to the advertising campaign compared to what would be expected without the campaign. Marketers compare sales during the campaign to a baseline period to determine if the ad caused additional purchases.

Incrementality Testing Standards

Incrementality testing determines if an ad actually caused more sales or if those sales would have happened anyway. This is done by splitting audiences into groups where one group sees the ad and another does not. By comparing results, marketers can see if the ad made a measurable difference.

Data Clean Room Adoption

A data clean room is a secure digital space where different companies can share and match customer information without exposing personal details. Only aggregated and anonymized data is shared in these environments. Retail media networks increasingly use clean rooms to measure campaign results while protecting customer privacy.

Action Plan to Maximize Retail Media Impact

1. Audit Your First-Party Data

First-party data refers to information collected directly from customers, such as purchase history, website activity, and loyalty program participation. Start by listing all sources of first-party data and identifying where the data is stored. Review the accuracy, completeness, and freshness of this data to understand what can be used for retail media targeting and measurement.

2. Align Budget Lines and KPIs

Budget lines refer to how funds are organized and tracked for different marketing activities. Clarify which portions of the budget are set aside for retail media, distinguishing between funds dedicated to awareness, conversion, or loyalty campaigns. Identify key performance indicators (KPIs) such as return on ad spend (ROAS), sales lift, or new customer acquisition.

3. Pilot Full-Funnel Inventory

The marketing funnel includes upper funnel (awareness), middle funnel (consideration), and lower funnel (conversion) stages. Retail media offers placements for each stage, such as display ads for awareness and sponsored product ads for conversion. Run test campaigns across various placements to see which inventory types work best for different goals.

4. Scale With Always-On Testing

Always-on testing means running experiments and measuring results on a regular basis rather than only during special campaigns. Set up ongoing tests to compare different ad formats, bidding strategies, or audience segments. Monitor results over time to make small adjustments that improve campaign efficiency.

Looking Ahead With Darkroom's Growth Partners

Retail media is changing quickly, and brands are looking for partners who combine experience in digital advertising with an understanding of how to use data for growth. Darkroom approaches retail media by focusing on data-driven decision-making across every stage of campaign planning and execution.

Schedule an Introductory Call to Explore How Darkroom Can Help Your Business Grow

Darkroom uses customer insights, channel-level data, and advanced analytics to design retail media strategies tailored to specific brand goals. This process includes examining first-party data, identifying measurable outcomes, and selecting the right mix of retail media channels and inventory.

To learn more about how Darkroom applies data and creativity to retail media, schedule an introductory call. The agency works with clients to analyze their current approach, discuss measurable objectives, and explore solutions that match business needs.